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Subject: "Say hello to Ivan" Previous topic | Next topic
ShellyTue Sep-14-04 03:05 PM
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"Say hello to Ivan"


  

          

Hurricane Ivan is on a classic projected path to threaten Florida. The current path is over Jamaica, Havana, Cuba, and then across the Florida Straits to the Florida Keys. Ivan is already a dangerous Category 4 storm. It bears close watching.


Shelly

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Bob HWed Sep-08-04 01:48 PM
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#1. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

Hope this doesn't bear out the old everything bad comes in threes. You guys have had more than your share.



  

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Kiwi2022Wed Sep-08-04 02:36 PM
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#2. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Bob H (Reply # 1)


  

          

>Hope this doesn't bear out the old everything bad comes in
>threes. You guys have had more than your share.


They certainly have Bob and my heart just goes out to all of them. I can't even imagine, as I am scared to death of a little lightening around here.

Well peeps I will keep talking to the big man upstairs and hope that you are spared the havoc of Ivan. It appears he is causing plenty of damage here. Sad, very sad....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



"A woman's heart is an ocean of secrets."
Rose Dawson; from the movie "Titanic"

  

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JPWed Sep-08-04 04:08 PM
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#4. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Kiwi2022 (Reply # 2)


          

Yes, Grenada was outright clobbered by Ivan. Hopefully, Ivan going through there is a sign that it will stay south of Florida. Trouble with that is, it will make landfall somewhere else. The gulf coast had better be watching this one and making plans.

  

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DaylilydayzedWed Sep-08-04 03:12 PM
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#3. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

If Ivan comes this way again, I am ready for it. I have now got a portable battery operated color TV/AM/FM set, a flashlight that has an AM/FM radio on it, a three way emergency light, 10 2 1/2
gallon jugs of water and various food stuffs to keep us fed. The new TV antenna will be disconnected and brought into the garage since we just replaced it yesterday.
Daylilydayzed

  

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WakkoWed Sep-08-04 04:45 PM
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#5. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Daylilydayzed (Reply # 3)


  

          

Smart move. Sucks that these storm systems are just pounding the heck out you people right now. Reminds me I need to make sure my parents are alive again... its been a week.

  

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ShellyThu Sep-09-04 06:14 PM
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#6. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)
Thu Sep-09-04 06:15 PM by Shelly

  

          

The track of Ivan was shifted east overnight, but has now been shifted back to the west because of strengthining high pressure over the Bahamas. The latest discussion folows:

TNT44 KNHC 091452
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING ABOUT 1141Z.
FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS WERE 156 KNOTS WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 917 MB AND 921 MB MEASURED BY A DROP. IVAN HAS AN
OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER...THE RING OF
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS. HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN
SUCH PEAK INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME AND MOST LIKELY THERE WILL WE
SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 UNTIL IT REACHES CUBA. THEREAFTER..THE EFFECTS
OF LAND...INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE
WEAKENING.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE
HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLAPSE AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AS IT CROSSES CUBA. A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WILL BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY THE UK...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS GLOBAL
MODELS. A WEAKER RIDGE THAN ANTICIPATED COULD RESULT ON A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE 4-5 DAY OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...CALLS FOR A SOLUTION IN
BETWEEN...BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER WEST/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

The latest satellite view if Ivan:



Shelly

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cascaThu Sep-09-04 06:39 PM
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#7. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

Sure are a mess of them this year, time to head north to Dallas.

Under Construction

  

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ShellyThu Sep-09-04 10:44 PM
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#8. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

Latest track for Ivan:



Shelly

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Kiwi2022Thu Sep-09-04 11:14 PM
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#9. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 8)


  

          

That's good and so true!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



"A woman's heart is an ocean of secrets."
Rose Dawson; from the movie "Titanic"

  

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ShellyFri Sep-10-04 12:55 AM
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#10. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

New projected path just released:



Shelly

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npmclFri Sep-10-04 08:04 AM
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#11. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 10)


  

          

Is this recent spate of severe hurricanes unusual for the area and time of year? I really can't imagine what it must be like for people there.

  

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AllynFri Sep-10-04 10:31 AM
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#12. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to npmcl (Reply # 11)


          

The number of storms is not that far out-of-line when statistics are compared over the long term. But it is unusual for one area to be so severely affected. South and central Florida, it seems, is getting make-up time for the past dearth of tropical rains and storms. And regardless of political differences, we shouldn't forget western Cuba, which is likely to take another severe beating if Ivan stays on course and crosses west of Havana where Charley struck last month.

As I'm sure you've read, Noreen, when these storms move inland and even after the strongest core circulation winds have dropped to around 35 mph, tremendous amounts of rain can still be released with convective bands of severe thunderstorms forming, especially over rising terrain. Strong winds are still possible and flooding is not unusual.

An example is what happened in Henry County, Georgia in metropolitan Atlanta. My daughter's home and landscape endured damage caused by high winds and rain as Frances moved inland. Numerous large pine and cedar trees were toppled in their yard and neighborhood, with some roof damage to their house. She and her husband are spending their vacation next week repairing and cleaning up. But they are more fortunate than those in Florida and other tropical locales who have lost their entire homes.

Ironically, they were supposed to vacation in southwest Florida, where Ivan is expected to visit! They had alternate plans but now Ivan's peripheral effects are threatening all of the southeastern USA.

I feel for those affected by these storms. The mere threat of them is enough to lose sleep. To be repeatedly battered has to be a truly weary and shocking experience.

  

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dbahnFri Sep-10-04 10:42 AM
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#13. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Allyn (Reply # 12)


  

          

I heard a weather expert this morning discussing the effect of El Nino (actually the lack of effect) on this pattern. Evidently, a combination of a subdued Pacific warming, or lack of El Nino, is partly responsible for allowing the develpment of mid Atlantic high pressure which then steers these storms futher westward into Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, instead of allowing them to drift up the Atlantic. In addition, the Atlantic waters are about 1 degree warmer than average, and this adds a considerable amount of energy to the hurricanes that do develop. "Global warming" can not be blamed, according to the expert.

Dave



Dell 8300 Dimension
Pentium 4
W XP Home


www.woodenpropeller.com

  

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ShellyFri Sep-10-04 02:43 PM
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#14. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to dbahn (Reply # 13)


  

          

All of that is true, but I blame it on retribution for having a Bush in the governors office. The same thing happened to North Carolina when Jesse Helms was in office.

Shelly

  

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dbahnFri Sep-10-04 03:21 PM
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#16. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 14)


  

          

Do the weather people know about this?

Dave



Dell 8300 Dimension
Pentium 4
W XP Home


www.woodenpropeller.com

  

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ShellyFri Sep-10-04 02:58 PM
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#15. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

Latest StormTrack for Ivan:



Shelly

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AllynFri Sep-10-04 07:23 PM
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#17. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 15)


          

If this holds up, coastal South Carolina will definitely feel this one. And Florida again.......

  

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miztrialSat Sep-11-04 12:41 PM
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#18. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 15)


          

Shelly where are you getting your hurricane graphic from? It is easier to see than the one used by the national hurricane center.

  

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ShellySat Sep-11-04 02:43 PM
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#19. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to miztrial (Reply # 18)
Sat Sep-11-04 02:44 PM by Shelly

  

          

I drew it freehand. I found it hidden away about five layers deep in a site called Hurricane Alley.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/

Shelly

  

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ShellySat Sep-11-04 02:48 PM
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#20. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

Ivan has again had its projected path moved further west due to a strengthining high pressure area over the Bahamas. Things are looking better for penninsular Florida, we may get a break this time.




Shelly

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micksterSat Sep-11-04 03:19 PM
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#21. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 20)
Sat Sep-11-04 03:21 PM by mickster

          

We can definitely hope but the key word is..."projected".
using their own 90 mile wiggle room variant...it's pretty close to us on the west coast.
Corky is in Cleveland on business and wants us to fly up there.(myself and the cats...mom goes to my sister in DC with this scenario). That may happen.

  

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jujet84Sun Sep-12-04 12:45 PM
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#22. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to mickster (Reply # 21)


          

Fantastic picture of Ivan

  

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jasonlevineTue Sep-14-04 01:51 PM
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#30. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 20)


  

          

>Ivan has again had its projected path moved further west due
>to a strengthining high pressure area over the Bahamas.
>Things are looking better for penninsular Florida, we may get
>a break this time.

The good news is that Ivan seems to be missing Florida (except for a portion of the panhandle). The bad news is that Florida is bound to get more rain. After the previous 2 hurricaines, I'll bet that the ground is already saturated and flooding will be a major concern.

- Jason Levine
Please donate to PCQandA!

  

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ShellyTue Sep-14-04 02:03 PM
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#31. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to jasonlevine (Reply # 30)


  

          

You're right. It has been raining here heavily every day, even without Ivan. Areas around my house are no longer absorbing the water and it remains in puddles. A side effect is that some of our most common trees, like the live oak, have shallow surface root systems, and large full crowns. With the soft ground it will not take much of a wind to bring those trees down.

Shelly

  

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ShellySun Sep-12-04 09:23 PM
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#23. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

The latest projection on Ivan. The wind speed has dropped from 165 to 150MPH but that is likely to increase again once it is in the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and no longer being affected by friction with Cuba nd Yucatan. The track is moved again further west and will now shoot the gap between Cuba and Yucatan.



Shelly

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AllynMon Sep-13-04 12:41 AM
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#24. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


          

Here is a link to NOAA's latest IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

  

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ShellyMon Sep-13-04 02:20 PM
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#25. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

As expected the predicted track of Ivan was adjusted further west again. I anticipate that this will continue. With low pressure over the lower Mississippi valley, I think the storm will make landfall south of New Orleans on the Mississippi delta.



Shelly

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_Chewy_Mon Sep-13-04 02:29 PM
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#26. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 25)


  

          

Thank God most of FL will be unaffected by H-Ivan. They've been through enough these past several weeks.

  

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ShellyMon Sep-13-04 11:07 PM
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#27. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

Here are the latest computer models. They are in close agreement between now and landfall.



Shelly

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vitaltMon Sep-13-04 11:19 PM
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#28. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 27)
Mon Sep-13-04 11:26 PM by vitalt

  

          

weatherman here calls for the next one to become a hurricane and come towards east coast again saturday.If Ivan hits the panhandle and jeane comes here thats 4 hurricanes in a month so far...which one of you is responsible for ordering this relentless string..

Vitalt

Useful Team Info

  

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ShellyMon Sep-13-04 11:26 PM
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#29. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to vitalt (Reply # 28)


  

          

At the moment, TD#11 (Jeanne) is on the same course as Frances. I started a new thread for it.

Shelly

  

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ShellyTue Sep-14-04 03:07 PM
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#33. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)


  

          

Here are the latest models for Ivan.


Shelly

Attachment #1, (gif file)

  

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Bob HTue Sep-14-04 03:29 PM
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#34. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 33)


  

          

Looks like it's almost unanimous that New Orleans is going to get clobbered.



  

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ShellyTue Sep-14-04 04:55 PM
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#35. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Bob H (Reply # 34)


  

          

I agree, that's what I predicted yesteday. Here is the latest track


Shelly

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ShellyWed Sep-15-04 02:21 AM
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#36. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 35)


  

          





Shelly

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ablibWed Sep-15-04 02:25 AM
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#37. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 36)


  

          

poor florida You missed Ivan, but others are coming.

Visit the Basement

  

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vitaltWed Sep-15-04 02:39 AM
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#38. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to ablib (Reply # 37)


  

          

SHHHhhhhh!!! be quiet....

Vitalt

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jujet84Wed Sep-15-04 11:33 AM
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#39. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to vitalt (Reply # 38)


          

Latest New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA Radar
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

  

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ShellyWed Sep-15-04 01:47 PM
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#40. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 0)
Wed Sep-15-04 01:51 PM by Shelly

  

          

Latest Track for Ivan. Note the last location predicted for Ivan near the Tennessee, Georgia border, The storm is expected to lose forward momentum and stall at that point creating a huge potential for flooding in the area.


Shelly

Attachment #1, (gif file)

  

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ShellyWed Sep-15-04 02:01 PM
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#41. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 40)


  

          

Here is the latest satellite photograp of Ivan. It gives a good Idea of the size of this monster storm.



Shelly

Attachment #1, (jpg file)

  

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DaylilydayzedWed Sep-15-04 02:15 PM
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#42. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 41)


  

          

Shelley, I copied and pasted your picture of Ivan into a thread on Tinkergardens Gab forum for some of my firends that are in Ivans path. We are all trying to keep everyone informed on thei storm.
Daylilydayzed

  

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ShellyWed Sep-15-04 02:59 PM
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#43. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Daylilydayzed (Reply # 42)


  

          

The Photo (NOAA), and the map (Naval Research Laboratory) are public domain, and can be freely used by anyone.

Shelly

  

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DaylilydayzedWed Sep-15-04 09:19 PM
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#47. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 43)


  

          

Our televison weather reportes have been reporting wave heights in the gulf up near pensacola Beach of 50 ft, 49 ft and so on. It is scary to think of waves higher than some of the bridges up in North FL.
Daylilydayzed

  

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AllynWed Sep-15-04 06:19 PM
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#44. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 41)


          

Here is the visible loop from the same satellite from NOAA, Shelly. According to the NOAA website, this should be available after dark as an IR image.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Ivan is shrugging off the drier air and looks better organized now. Hopefully, it will not get any stronger. It's eye is once again taking on the classic characteristics with the star-shaped spokes like Isabel did last year.

I grew up in Mobile and suspect Ivan will alter my old stomping ground to some degree. And recently, a woman named Jeanne needed my help here in Bluffton. I hope that's not an omen with the new storm in the Atlantic coming this way.

  

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dbahnWed Sep-15-04 08:08 PM
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#45. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Allyn (Reply # 44)


  

          

How about NOAA reporting 42 foot wave heights in the Gulf of Mexico? Now that's a storm.

Dave



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www.woodenpropeller.com

  

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DaDwarfsWed Sep-15-04 08:44 PM
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#46. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to dbahn (Reply # 45)


          

This cam is always teaming with people, now it shows a ghost town

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/

  

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jujet84Wed Sep-15-04 10:37 PM
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#48. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to DaDwarfs (Reply # 46)


          

Awesome

  

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ShellyThu Sep-16-04 12:55 AM
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#49. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Allyn (Reply # 44)


  

          

It replaced the eyewall again, may be strenghening some.

Shelly

  

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vitaltThu Sep-16-04 01:10 AM
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#50. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 49)


  

          

Looks like the eye is bigger than lake Ockechobee..

Vitalt

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ablibThu Sep-16-04 01:31 AM
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#51. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to vitalt (Reply # 50)


  

          

now forgive me for my lack of hurricane knowledge, but is the eye of the storm the most ferocious part?

Visit the Basement

  

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ShellyThu Sep-16-04 01:42 AM
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#52. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to ablib (Reply # 51)
Thu Sep-16-04 01:43 AM by Shelly

  

          

The eye itself is calm, but the eyewall has the strongest winds. While within the eye you can often look up into blue sky.

Shelly

  

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waldoThu Sep-16-04 02:10 AM
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#54. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to ablib (Reply # 51)


  

          

>now forgive me for my lack of hurricane knowledge, but is the
>eye of the storm the most ferocious part?
The science of hurricanes
By Peter Gibbs
BBC Weather Centre


Hurricanes are natural phenomena and have been storming the globe for thousands of years.
They are important features of the Earth's atmosphere as they transfer heat and energy from the equator to the poles.
However, when these natural hazards come into contact with people and their environments, they can cause much devastation and loss of life.
A hurricane is a large rotating storm centred on an area of very low pressure, with wind speeds in excess of 119km/h (74mph).
For a hurricane to form several conditions must be fulfilled:
• Sea surface temperatures greater than 26C
• Rapidly cooling air above
• A sufficient spin from the rotating Earth.
As the warm sea heats the air above it, a current of warm moist air rises up quickly, creating a centre of low pressure at the surface.
Trade winds rush in towards the low pressure area and inward spiralling winds whirl upwards releasing heat and moisture.
The rotation of the Earth causes the column to twist around the eye which remains calm and free from clouds.
Late start

This season started rather quietly.
There were no hurricanes and only one tropical storm (winds 90-100km/h; 55-63mph) in the months of June and July, compared with 2003 where two hurricanes and six storms had already occurred.
August, however, was a different story.
Four hurricanes and four tropical storms formed, with four of them hitting the Caribbean or the US.
Storms such as Charley and Frances had long, warm sea tracks allowing them to gain moisture and energy as they made their way towards land.
With Ivan being the fifth hurricane to hit such areas, it could be said in summary that after a late start, this season is surely shaping up to be a stormy one, and there are still two months to go.
Global warming
In fact, the 2003 season was also very active, but very few storms made landfall and so there was little media attention.

Another issue recently at the forefront of media attention is global warming.
The likely rise in global temperatures has often been linked with the increasing frequency and ferocity of worldwide storms.
It could be said that a rise in sea surface temperatures will surely increase the area where these storms can form, therefore it is likely to increase the frequency of such hazards.
However, there are many areas which currently have sea temperatures of over 26C which do not spawn hurricane development.
There are in fact so many other factors which influence the development of hurricanes, such as the influence of El Nino, seasonal Saharan rainfall, wind shear, to name a few, that it is very difficult to pinpoint any effect that global warming might have.
As to whether hurricanes are stronger and more destructive than in the past, many factors must be taken into account and it is often very hard to gauge.
Natural hazards
The strength of the hurricane, the loss of life, the cost to property and infrastructure, and the areas which are hit must all be measured.
A hurricane's strength is measured on a scale of 1 to 5; 5 being the strongest wind strength around the eye.
A look back into the history books shows that the number of category 5 storms in the Atlantic Ocean has not increased in recent years.
In terms of loss of life, the deadliest hurricane occurred in 1900, when 8,000 people were killed, mainly in Texas.
This was mostly due to the lack of preparedness and technical advancement in understanding such storms.
The costliest of hurricanes, however, occurred in 1992. Hurricane Andrew (a category 5 storm) swept through one of the most densely populated areas of Florida.
Over $25bn worth of damage was caused, but because of advances in forecasting, computer and satellite technology, timely warnings meant that fewer than 100 deaths were recorded.
Hurricanes are essential natural hazards. But with ever larger numbers of people moving to the attractive coastal areas of tropical regions, can technological advancement improve forecasts enough to keep loss of life and injury down to a minimum?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3653020.stm

  

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ShellyThu Sep-16-04 03:09 AM
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#60. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to waldo (Reply # 54)


  

          

Your source only made one major error, Waldo. Tropical storm wind velocity is from 39MPH to 73MPH.

Global warming is just that, global. It's a measure of the mean temperature of the entire globe. There will always be areas whee it is unusually cold and unusually hot, but an increase of just a fraction of a degree in the mean is significant and can have far reaching repercussions.

The Earth has been generally warming since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago, except for a few brief cooling periods. For most of its history the Earth has been much warmer than it has been through most of the time that humans have been around. With the arrival of the industrial age, there has been a tiny increase in the rate of global warming. We are not responsible for global warming, but we have exacerbated it a bit.

We can't know in advance if the current warming trend will continue. cyclical variations in the amount of solar energy we receive can cause the trend to reverse, or to get worse. If warming continues it will slowly have profound effects on our climate, and sea level could rise over 200 feet if the polar caps melt.

We can see a similar storm to a hurricane on Jupiter. The Great Red Spot is a great anti-cyclonic (high pressure) storm akin to a hurricane on Earth, but it is enormous (three Earths would fit within its boundaries) and it has persisted for at least the 400 years that humans have observed it through telescopes. Since it is anti-cyclonic in Jupiter's Southern hemisphere, the rotation is counterclockwise, with a period of about 6 days. (A hurricane in Earth's Southern hemisphere rotates clockwise because it is a low pressure system.)

Shelly

  

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waldoThu Sep-16-04 05:05 AM
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#64. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 60)


  

          

Yes sir, Perfessor. You the man, Shelly. I knew it was pretty accurate though but i admit, I do trust you more! This is a bad storm,, one of my best friends is riding it out in Pensacola and I know he regrets it, I wish I was as persuasive as you, I tried to get him to leave Monday. This is a real "Wrath Of God" storm".

  

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ShellyThu Sep-16-04 01:45 AM
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#53. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to vitalt (Reply # 50)


  

          

It's about 30 miles in diameter.

Shelly

  

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ablibThu Sep-16-04 02:25 AM
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#55. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 53)


  

          

So if the eye of the storm hits my hometown, I would experience a horrific hurricane tearing my town to shreds then as our town is right in the eye of the storm there is nothing? Calm day, sun and blue sky above me. All I see around me is a swirling storm? Then in about 2 hours or so (if the hurricane is moving at 15mph) it suddenly becomes horrible again? With hurricane force winds until it moves on?

Visit the Basement

  

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ShellyThu Sep-16-04 02:31 AM
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#56. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to ablib (Reply # 55)


  

          

You got it! Many a life has been lost because people came out
in the eye thinking the storm had passed, only to be caught by the fury of the opposing wall.

Shelly

  

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vitaltThu Sep-16-04 02:37 AM
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#57. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to ablib (Reply # 55)


  

          

exactly except you dont see nothing because you are cowering with your head between your legs hoping the plywood holds...dark with all the windows boarded up...but you can hear every little thing that hits the house or every limb that snaps off your trees...thats if its a 1 or 2...if you have a 3 or 4 you can see plenty flying buy past the hole in your roof...depending on how your house is built and its not underwater.Most people ive met that stayed for Andrew said they werent ever going to do that again..imagine everything being blown one direction for hours then the opposite direction for hours..ever bend sheet metal back and forth...eventually it breaks in two.


Vitalt

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dbahnThu Sep-16-04 02:45 AM
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#58. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to vitalt (Reply # 57)


  

          

Imagine being in the eye of the hurricane and looking up at the clear sky overhead. The vertical wall of cloud right next to you can rise up to 50,000 feet.

Dave



Dell 8300 Dimension
Pentium 4
W XP Home


www.woodenpropeller.com

  

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ablibThu Sep-16-04 02:50 AM
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#59. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to dbahn (Reply # 58)
Thu Sep-16-04 02:50 AM by ablib

  

          

Wow. I would like to experience it someday. When you're in the eye can you literally look 360 degrees and see the dark wall of could all around you? And is this cloud surface to air?

Visit the Basement

  

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waldoThu Sep-16-04 03:13 AM
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#61. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to ablib (Reply # 59)
Thu Sep-16-04 03:13 AM by waldo

  

          

Bullshit, dude! My entire family lives between Charleston SC and Awendaw SC and they all rode out Hugo http://wchs.csc.noaa.gov/hugo.htm in 1989 and not one person will stay for another one if they are in the path about 3 days out! Man, they all come up here in Columbia which is a little more than a hundred miles. I was in Awendaw about 4 days after the storm running supplies to them and it looked like Iwo Jima! All the trees were 20’ tall at the coast from the flotsam and jetsam (trash) in the storm surge breaking them at the crest. It moved shrimp boats almost a mile inland and left them there. I think I would just like to see a good photo of the eye from the inside but I don’t ever want to see what breaks trees in half like that in person! Hell, I don’t even like fishing anymore in more than a 10-15 mph breeze, and you want to see 140-180? Huh uh, not me, there is a lot of people regretting staying on the Gulf Coast right now, and all we can do is pray for them.

  

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vitaltThu Sep-16-04 12:19 PM
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#65. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to waldo (Reply # 61)
Thu Sep-16-04 12:19 PM by vitalt

  

          

I saw a lot of that damage still there today in summerton and manning...a hotel looked like a 3 story storage cubicle...no front to the building at all...all the stuff still in the room piled up like trash....left as a total loss i presume..how far inland is that?

Vitalt

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ShellyThu Sep-16-04 03:15 AM
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#62. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to ablib (Reply # 59)


  

          

Yes, and if you did experience it you will wish you hadn't. Trust me. I sailed through one in the middle of the Atlantic ocean on a troop ship.

Shelly

  

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LilJoeThu Sep-16-04 03:25 AM
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#63. "RE: Say hello to Ivan"
In response to Shelly (Reply # 62)


  

          

I was caught in a typhoon in the south pacific on a liberty ship during WW2.I was a green kid of 17 years old and thought the end of the world was coming.
Took us three days to ride out of it.

LilJoe

  

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